ASHES 2023: FOURTH TEST PREVIEW
Victory at Headingley kept the men’s Ashes series alive, but the situation hasn’t changed – England know that they must win both remaining tests to regain the Ashes.
Both teams will be thankful for a slightly longer turnaround ahead of the battle at Old Trafford, though Ollie Pope and Nathan Lyon won’t feature for their respective teams having both been ruled out for the remainder of the Ashes.
The current state of play will feel eerily similar to 2019 after Ben Stokes had pulled off an incredible heist in Leeds, before the tourists retained the Ashes with a commanding victory in Manchester. Four years later and the dynamic has shifted, England are in the ascendancy having brought Chris Woakes and Mark Wood into the fold with immediate impact.
Wood’s lightning pace proved a challenge to great for the Australian top order as the Durham man took seven wickets in Leeds. Mitch Marsh replaced Cameron Green and the decision to include the all-rounder following a four-year absence from the test arena was immediately rewarded as Marsh scored his third Test century, a quickfire 118 from 118 balls.
England have rested Ollie Robinson for the encounter at Old Trafford with Jimmy Anderson given the chance to return to form at his home patch, the sole change representing a faith that the winning side at Headingley can go again in Manchester. Moeen Ali will bat at three allowing Harry Brooks to return to his preferred spot at No 5 – a position he scored a match-winning 75 from England’s second innings in Leeds.
David Warner could be a casualty, his form deserted him in the third test with just five runs across both innings with his arch nemesis Stuart Broad claiming his wicket twice. The idea of Marsh replacing him to open the batting alongside Usman Khawaja has been floated, though that seems unlikely given Pat Cummins trust in Warner. It is tempting to bet against Warner reaching double figures or better in both of his innings so we’d advise against picking him to do so.
Josh Hazlewood should return for Scott Boland, while Cameron Green will come back into contention after a hamstring injury. Spinner Todd Murphy did his best to ease the loss of Lyon, though it’s hard to emphasise just how important the latter is to Australia with his wicket-taking presence allowing the visitors to rotate their seam attack.
One option could be to drop Murphy and pack the batting with poor weather conditions expected, Australia only need to draw at Old Trafford to retain the Ashes. It’s do or die for the hosts and they rose to the occasion in Leeds – but they’ll need to back that up again this week, traditionally the wicket in Manchester has favoured pace which would suit England and Mark Wood. On that note we’d fancy the express paceman to exceed the 5.5 wicket betting line in the Ashes Fourth Test league in the Who Knows Wins app.
Prediction: England win to pull level at 2-2
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