SIX NATIONS 2024 PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
The 2024 edition of the Six Nations, where on earth do we start?
Okay, so the 2023 World Cup was a disaster for the Northern Hemisphere contingent as England were the only nation to reach the Semi-Finals - only to lose to eventual champions South Africa. Netflix released its hotly-anticipated ‘Six Nations: Full Contact’ documentary series filmed during last year’s tournament and premiered on the eve of the 2024 edition, needless to say some nations did more to cater for the production than others.
A number of recognisable faces will be conspicuous by their absence. A raft of legends have hung up their boots, some players have abstained to focus on Sevens competition at the 2024 Olympics in Paris, others have removed themselves for selection due to personal reasons, and then there’s Wales flyer Louis Rees-Zammit, who has quit rugby altogether for the time being to try his luck in the NFL.
It’s going to be a fascinating tournament isn’t it? Let’s get to the preview and predictions...
6th: Italy
Before you say anything, yes we did pick Italy to produce their best-ever Six Nations performance in our 2024 bold predictions at the start of the year. In our defence we were a little overly audacious with that one.
The Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) announced last summer they weren’t to renew the contract of head coach Kieran Crowley following the Rugby World Cup in France. An strange decision given the Kiwi coach oversaw an improvement while in the position as Italy ended their 36-match barren Six Nations streak with a 22-21 victory over Wales in Cardiff in 2022, later that year the Azzurri secured a landmark triumph over Australia – their first victory ever against the Wallabies.
Italy went winless in last year’s tournament, and they failed to make the knockout stages of the 2023 World Cup - in all fairness it was a tall order given they were drawn against France and New Zealand. Retired Argentine fly-half Gonzalo Quesada is the new man at the helm, his resume is impressive with successful coaching stints in France and his homeland at Stade Français, Racing 92 and the Jaguares.
The Under-20 side has flourished in recent years, optimism for the future then yes, but that hasn’t translated to the senior level yet. The performances have improved, Italy didn’t lose by a margin wider than 14 points last year, they could and should have beaten France and Scotland too.
5th: Wales
Wales' ‘Great Redeemer’ couldn’t inspire the nation beyond one victory against Italy last year, but then again Warren Gatland took on another role as chief firefighter after his reappointment as Wales Head Coach in December 2022. Widespread budget cuts and contract uncertainty led senior members of the Wales squad to threaten a possible player strike before their home fixture against England. That was narrowly averted at the 11th hour, but ultimately couldn’t prevent an underwhelming campaign.
A plethora of stalwarts called time on their international careers on the eve of the 2023 World Cup, including, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Rhys Webb - Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny wrapped up their service to Wales after they bowed out at the Quarter-Finals stage. Co-captains Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake will miss the tournament through injury, as does the talismanic Taulupe Faletau - the bombshell came courtesy of Louis Rees-Zammit who announced his immediate departure from the sport to try his hand in the NFL by joining the International Player Pathway Program, the sudden news trickled through just an hour before Wales’ Six Nations squad unveiling.
Gatland is synonymous for shaping his squad in World Cup cycles, you’d have anticipated the Kiwi to blood in fresh faces for a post-World Cup Six Nations, though this time it’s through necessity. Five uncapped players are drafted in, bringing the average age of the squad down to just 25. Short term pain for long term gain then, the former could be amplified with such inexperience at tighthead, fly-half and the back three.
4th: England
Steve Borthwick's previous squad contained more than 1,400 caps and achieved a third-place finish at the Rugby World Cup in France in October, but England too will overhaul their squad with seven uncapped players enlisted having lost a wealth of international experience with Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs, Jonny May and Mako Vunipola all retiring from the test arena.
The biggest talking point will be the absence of long-serving captain Owen Farrell, who will miss the Six Nations to take a break from international rugby for mental well-being. Farrell is an England great but has faced publicised criticism from his own supporters, just last week it was announced that the 112-cap back would be departing for French Top 14 side Racing 92 at the end of the season. Marcus Smith has been biding his time, waiting in the wings to assume the number 10 jersey, though in a cruel twist of fate his selection remains in the balance having picked up an injury during a training session in preparation for the Italy fixture, the Harlequins playmaker left England's base in Girona on crutches.
Recent history would suggest England are poised for a slow start to the tournament having lost their four previous opening fixtures. A trip to Rome is not the one-sided affair it once was, but it’s a great opportunity for Borthwick’s side to build momentum, particularly when Wales visit Twickenham a week later. A forward pack featuring a front row of Joe Marler, Jamie George and Dan Cole, along with seasoned campaigners in Maro Itoje and Sam Underhill will provide England with a solid foundation at set piece, but bedding in a relatively inexperienced backline will be paramount early on as England face tough outings in Edinburgh and Paris.
3rd: Ireland
The Reigning champions aren’t the all-conquering outfit they were after completing a Six Nations Grand Slam last year. Heading into the World Cup Ireland were placed alongside France as tournament favourites, they were the #1 ranked test team in the world, they had bested their Northern Hemisphere counterparts and had beaten New Zealand in their own backyard in a three-match series back in 2022. Victories over Scotland and South Africa put Farrell’s men in strong contention in France, but New Zealand exacted revenge by condemning Ireland to eight defeats in eight World Cup Quarter-Finals.
It’s impossible to overstate just how important Johnny Sexton was to Ireland, if their backline were an orchestra, he would be the conductor. Ross Byrne, Jack Crowley and Joey Carbery have all been given auditions in recent years to displace Sexton, yet the former captain ousted the competition with ease. The keys to the car have been handed to Crowley, with Harry Byrne and Ciarán Frawley deputising. It’s an tall order for anyone to imitate one of Ireland’s greatest-ever players, but Farrell will be eyeing evolution not revolution, the burden will be eased by Jamison Gibson-Park and Conor Murray, two quality veterans at scrum-half.
A star-studded pack will provide front foot ball, Peter O’Mahony is a commanding presence and will handle the captaincy effortlessly. The backline is experienced and battle-hardened, will Farrell opt to use Crowley in a similar effect to Sexton, or is this an opportunity to revamp their attack? Leinster assistant coach Andrew Goodman will replace Mike Catt as Ireland's backs coach at the end of the season, so we may be waiting a little longer to see a reimagined strategy. A trip to Paris is a daunting prospect, particularly as Ireland will kick off the competition on Friday night against France at Stade de France. It does seem a bridge too far right now to foresee Ireland going back-to-back.
2nd: France
The 2023 World Cup was supposed to feature a carefully assembled French squad finally lifting an elusive Webb Ellis Cup in their homeland. Instead, South Africa edged a thriller at the Stade de France, denying France the chance to prevail at their own World Cup. The agony of missing out on Rugby’s greatest prize will still hurt, it could galvanize Fabien Galthie’s squad, but they will have to bounce back without their preferred half-back partnership of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack (the former will miss the Six Nations to concentrate on representing France in the 2024 Olympics, while the latter is still recovering from the ACL tear that ruled him out of the World Cup).
Matthieu Jalibert is a fine deputy to Ntamack, the challenge will be replacing arguably the greatest player in the world at scrum-half. More recently, flanker Anthony Jelonch has been ruled out for the tournament after reaggravating a knee injury that nearly kept him out of France’s World Cup plans. Missing a world-class player, yet alone three would hamper most teams, but it is also true that Les Bleus are well-equipped to handle such setbacks with fierce strength in depth.
Number 8 Gregory Alldritt will assume the captaincy, not a bad choice given his success in skippering La Rochelle to domestic and European trophies in recent years, while Former French captain Charles Ollivon is more than an able deputy. Make no bones about it, Galthie has unmatched firepower throughout his backline, a strong centre partnership of Jonathan Danty and Gaël Fickou has an air of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies about it, Thomas Ramos is one of the games’ greatest at fullback and Damian Penaud is a try-scoring machine. France host Ireland in Paris on Friday night to kick off the tournament, we have them finishing second in our predictions, but we could quickly change our mind come Saturday morning should they fend off Andy Farrell’s team.
1st: Scotland
Yes, the time has come.
All of Scotland’s rivals have key players missing, other than fullback Ollie Smith, Head Coach Gregor Townsend can expect a clean bill of health. Scotland's all time leading try-scorer, Stuart Hogg, unexpectedly hung up his boots before the World Cup, but there are ample options at 15. Townsend and Finn Russell have seemingly rekindled their relationship, during Netlfix’s ‘Full Contact’ docuseries the latter suggested, “some people might say I’m good to watch - if you’re a football fan you might say like Messi”. A tongue-in-cheek remark, but his influence on the Scotland attack cannot be overlooked.
Both France and England have to face Scotland at Murrayfield, home advantage could prove vital for Townsend’s side as they look to win their first-ever Six Nations title (they won the final edition of the Five Nations in 1999, one year prior to the competition expanding to include Italy). This pack can scrummage, the likes of Zander Fagerson, Pierre Schoeman and the evergreen WP Nel will ensure that, former England international Alec Hepburn has received his first call up after completing his stand-down period. There is quality and experience throughout the lock and back row positions, flanker Rory Darge has taken on co-captain duties alongside Russell.
The fan favourite centre pairing ‘Huwipulotu’ in the form of Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu will pose a real threat for opposing defences, as will the dangerous Edinburgh flyers Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham out wide. On paper this is a nicely balanced Scotland side, there will be a genuine opportunity for Townsend and his squad to claim a first championship crown in 25 years. Their toughest test may not come until the final round of the competition when they take on Ireland in Dublin. That could be a title-decider, watch this space.
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