SIX NATIONS 2024: ROUND TWO PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Scotland vs France - Saturday February 10 (2.15pm)
For 45 minutes, Scotland were cruising to their first win in Cardiff since 2002, then the drama unfolded. Wales responded with 26 unanswered second-half points, mounting a titanic comeback that ultimately fell agonisingly short of completing the biggest comeback in Six Nations history.
For Gregor Townsend’s men, winning their opening Six Nations match for a fourth successive year was all that mattered - but a calamitous second half performance in Wales’ Capital saw Scotland concede 14 successive penalties with George Turner and Sione Tuipulotu both shown yellow cards. Finn Russell was integral as captain. The fly-half was key to the visitors building a sizeable lead, his experience and tactical nous kicking out of hand put the hosts’ inexperienced back three under pressure.
Russell lamented his side’s lack of composure in the second half, such indiscipline could determine Scotland’s title credentials when all is said and done. Lock Richie Gray and back row Luke Crosbie will miss the rest of Scotland's Six Nations campaign after sustaining injuries in the dramatic opening win over Wales, but Townsend will have Grant Gilchrist available again following a ban, while co-captain Rory Darge could come into contention to face France.
Few expected France to began their Six Nations campaign with Ireland claiming their biggest ever away win over Les Bleus in Marseille. Paul Willemse was shown two yellow cards for repeated shoulder hits on Andrew Porter and Caelan Doris, but by that point the hosts were already trailing 17-3.
It will be a bitter pill to swallow, already without their captain and talisman, Antoine Dupont, the pressure will only continue to mount following last year's ill-fated home World Cup campaign. In the Six Nations era, it was the first time France have conceded five tries in a home game and only once have they conceded more points at home.
Head Coach Fabien Galthie can call upon a truly terrifying backline, but a Dupont-less attack appeared frantic and rudderless at times. It’s worth remembering that Ireland have been the gold standard of international test rugby over the past two years, despite disappointment at the 2023 World Cup. This is not a French side in transition, a reaction this weekend should be expected for a side no longer in a development phase, but will it be enough?
Prediction: Scotland 25-23 France
England v Wales - Saturday February 10 (4.45pm)
It wasn’t pretty, far from it, but England narrowly escaped Rome with victory to begin their Six Nations campaign. The Azzurri had threatened a first win over England, but the visitors’ defence held out in the second-half to end their run of four opening-game defeats in the Six Nations.
Irishman Felix Jones has replaced Kevin Sinfield as defence coach, the former has already been part of two successful World Cup campaigns with South Africa. Jones watched on as his new test side failed to cope with early Italian pressure, but an organised second-half performance frustrated Italy - who couldn’t score until after the 80th minute when Monty Ioane scampered clear with the game already lost.
This was a game where Head Coach Steve Borthwick blooded five new players in the victory over Italy - the most new caps in a single game since Stuart Lancaster's first game in charge in 2012. England are likely to rely on youth heavily in the coming weeks, international retirements and absences have forced Borthwick’s hand. Marcus Smith and Ellis Genge were pre-match injury casualties and missed round one, only the latter appears to have an opportunity to feature in round two.
Warren Gatland must’ve feared the worst at half-time, his Wales side were already 20-0 down at the break and conceded just after the interval to improve Scotland’s lead to 27. Finn Russell and co carved through the Welsh defence, but the hosts introduced replacement half-backs Tomos Williams and Ioan Lloyd - injecting the pace necessary to turn the tide.
Hooker Elliot Dee, prop Keiron Assiratti, and debutant back row Alex Mann were among a raft of early second-half changes, each contributed to a stunning comeback. The back row duo of Tommy Reffell and Aaron Wainwright were outstanding after the break, the latter was named the official player of the match despite his side ultimately falling short.
Sam Costelow was forced off against Scotland, his Scarlets teammate Lloyd, who was at the heart of Wales’ revival last weekend, is likely to take over as fly-half at Twickenham. Experienced campaigners George North and Will Rowlands are also expected to return to action against England after missing round one.
Prediction: England 24-17 Wales
Ireland v Italy - Sunday February 11 (3pm)
Less than 100 days after their World Cup Quarter-Final elimination at the hands of eventual runners-up New Zealand, Ireland were back in France seeking some form of vengeance - they succeeded, emphatically. France too were attempting to reinvigorate their fanbase following a similarly abrupt ending to a home World Cup campaign, but were decisively denied by a rampaging Andy Farrell outfit.
This is a settled Irish squad, Farrell named a 34-strong party with zero uncapped players, yet lesser-known commodities propelled themselves into the limelight in Marseille. Jack Crowley assumed fly-half responsibilities in a post-Jonny Sexton era and acquitted himself well orchestrating Ireland's attack, his goalkicking off the tee was exceptional. But it was Joe McCarthy, partnering Tadhg Beirne in the second row, who caught the eye with a barnstorming player of the match display. The fact McCarthy started ahead of James Ryan, a leading captaincy candidate, speaks volumes to just how highly Head Coach Farrell rates him, and with good reason - it was his Six Nations debut.
Ireland are tasked with just one further trip away from Dublin, a round four fixture at Twickenham. By that point, back-to-back Grand Slams could be a serious reality, rather than a possibility. No side has ever completed that feat in the competition, but Farrell’s side proved last weekend they are genuine contenders.
It went astray, but Italy nearly beat England for the first time in the Six Nations. Given last weekend was Gonzalo Quesada’s first match in charge of the Azzurri, there was plenty to be optimistic about as they tore through the English defence early in the match. First half tries from Alessandro Garbisi and Tommaso Allan gave Italy impetuous with the hugely physical centre partnership of Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello piercing the gainline.
But the hosts came undone in the second half. England’s blitz defence began to take effect in the second period and Italy were nearly shutout for the remainder of the game but for a late consolation try. The exit strategy is crucially important in test match rugby and the Azzurri struggled in that area after the break inviting pressure by giving England line-outs in the Italian half. It’s far too early to judge Quesada so early in his tenure as Head Coach, but there are signs that this Italian team are making better decisions than they did in their wounding World Cup defeats by New Zealand and France.
A rib injury has ruled the experienced and influential back row Sebastian Negri out of Sunday’s game, but by avoiding a rib fracture, he could be back for round three against France with the fallow week offering extra recovery time.
Prediction: Ireland 48-20 Italy
18+ begambleaware.org
